Super Bowl 41
Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts
February 4, 2007
What will the headline read on Monday the 5th? Will the Chicago Bears have enough offense to be able to outscore the Indianapolis Colts? Will the Indy offense be able to play its game versus the Chicago defense? Let's take a look at the matchups.
Both teams want to win the time of possession battle. Duh. Of course, the game will dictate whether that is necessary or not. The 2004 and 2005 Colt offenses could rip right through opposing defenses quicker than Dwight Freeney off the line. Or Bernard Berrian on a post. (Remember that Antoine Bethea - Indy's starting free safety). But in 2006, a more ball control oriented offensive attack has been at the root of the Colts' success. The Bears will want to pound the football to keep their offense on the field. Both teams employ a cover-2 defense which will limit the bombs to Berrian, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. But, because of the more explosive Indy offense, it is a higher priority for the Bears to win the time of possession battle. If the Colts can possess the ball for 38+ minutes (I've never picked such an arbitrary number in my life), there is a good chance they'll come out ahead. The Bears could have that same number and it wouldn't necessarily translate the same way.
OK, now you have in your head that this is going to be a pro-Colts piece. Not so fast. The Bears aren't 15-3 for nothing. If you ask me who the better team is at running off tackle, I will tell you the Bears are. How about the counter? Give me Thomas Jones running that play behind that line, please. But, let's not forget about the Colts running backs. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes have been able to run effectively the entire year. And yes, Cedric Benson has played well of late. Both running games have been effective this year, but the Bears have been more consistent and have shown they can run right at you. Specifically for this game, the Colts defense should be able to handle the Bears running attack. Unless the Bears can consistently gain some yardage between the tackles, the Colts, and their bend but don't break defensive philosophy, will be happy with the yardage they give up.
Well, what kind of game do the Bears have to play to be able to come back to Chicago with a Super Bowl trophy? Can they win in a shootout? Well, sure... if it is a shootout, then it is anyone's game. But, which team is more likely to be ABLE to score a lot of points? OK, Bear fans, let's say we're talking JUST from our offense, now. The Colt offense is the MOST DOMINANT unit of the two organizations. If they play their game, they will win. The Bears must force turnovers to win. They do that. They strip, they intercept, they make big hits. A few plays like this certainly could change the course of the game in the Bears favor. Turnovers aren't lucky. Well, some are... but we're talking overall. The Bears force turnovers. The Colts don't turn the ball over. The deciding factor may be the fact that the Bears DO turn the ball over, although most of that comes from the hand of Rex Grossman. I am as big of a backer as Rex as their is, but it is what it is. He is what he is... a guy with just over one full season's worth of starts. He shouldn't be able to come in and play a perfect game. He may have to in order to win, but it would be unfair to expect it out of him at this point. I think he has a good arm. I think scouts agree. Poise takes time. Look at what Peyton Manning did his first year. Give the man some time. OK, back to the Colts offense. What makes this offense so tough to stop is their offensive line. What has given then trouble in the past? Pittsburgh's blitz schemes and New England's cover schemes. The Bears this year have mainly only rushed their front 4. Indy should be able to handle that. They just don't let you touch Peyton. Tarik Glenn and Jeff Saturday anchor this line that should be regarded as highly as the Bears defense.
Taking the entire 2006 season in to consideration, the current rosters - no Mike Brown (starting pro-bowl safety), Tommie Harris (starting pro-bowl DT), Brandon Stokley (key 3rd WR to stretch the field and take advantage of slower nicklebacks/ linebackers), Corey Simon (starting DT) - and the level of their competition (AFC's dominance over the NFC deserves its own article), I make these predictions for the game:
-Dwight Freeney will force a fumble.
-Another Colt will also force a fumble.
-Rex Grossman will throw an interception. (I know, HUGE limb here.)
-The Colts will punt the ball out of bounds at least once. (No, you can't take what the Patriots did in the AFC Championship game, then say since the Bears are X-much better with their special teams and conclude they will gain Y more yards on punts and kickoffs. If the Colts do not make adjustments, however, a similar fate could be in store in terms of yardage lost.)
-Cedric Benson will carry the ball more than 10 times, but not more than 20.
-Joseph Addai, Ben Utecht and Dallas Clark will account for at least 2 TDs.
-If the Colts get to the goalline and Klecko flairs to the flats, the TE on the opposite side will be thrown to. Oh, and that play will start with play-action. Do I need to be more specific???
-The Bears throw at least 3 screens to the RB/FB. And two to the WRs. Maybe this is another gimmie, I don't know how often they try to do these things. I just think a few of these would be successful against the pressure the Colts defense will bring.
Final Score
Colts 31-17
Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts
February 4, 2007
What will the headline read on Monday the 5th? Will the Chicago Bears have enough offense to be able to outscore the Indianapolis Colts? Will the Indy offense be able to play its game versus the Chicago defense? Let's take a look at the matchups.
Both teams want to win the time of possession battle. Duh. Of course, the game will dictate whether that is necessary or not. The 2004 and 2005 Colt offenses could rip right through opposing defenses quicker than Dwight Freeney off the line. Or Bernard Berrian on a post. (Remember that Antoine Bethea - Indy's starting free safety). But in 2006, a more ball control oriented offensive attack has been at the root of the Colts' success. The Bears will want to pound the football to keep their offense on the field. Both teams employ a cover-2 defense which will limit the bombs to Berrian, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. But, because of the more explosive Indy offense, it is a higher priority for the Bears to win the time of possession battle. If the Colts can possess the ball for 38+ minutes (I've never picked such an arbitrary number in my life), there is a good chance they'll come out ahead. The Bears could have that same number and it wouldn't necessarily translate the same way.
OK, now you have in your head that this is going to be a pro-Colts piece. Not so fast. The Bears aren't 15-3 for nothing. If you ask me who the better team is at running off tackle, I will tell you the Bears are. How about the counter? Give me Thomas Jones running that play behind that line, please. But, let's not forget about the Colts running backs. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes have been able to run effectively the entire year. And yes, Cedric Benson has played well of late. Both running games have been effective this year, but the Bears have been more consistent and have shown they can run right at you. Specifically for this game, the Colts defense should be able to handle the Bears running attack. Unless the Bears can consistently gain some yardage between the tackles, the Colts, and their bend but don't break defensive philosophy, will be happy with the yardage they give up.
Well, what kind of game do the Bears have to play to be able to come back to Chicago with a Super Bowl trophy? Can they win in a shootout? Well, sure... if it is a shootout, then it is anyone's game. But, which team is more likely to be ABLE to score a lot of points? OK, Bear fans, let's say we're talking JUST from our offense, now. The Colt offense is the MOST DOMINANT unit of the two organizations. If they play their game, they will win. The Bears must force turnovers to win. They do that. They strip, they intercept, they make big hits. A few plays like this certainly could change the course of the game in the Bears favor. Turnovers aren't lucky. Well, some are... but we're talking overall. The Bears force turnovers. The Colts don't turn the ball over. The deciding factor may be the fact that the Bears DO turn the ball over, although most of that comes from the hand of Rex Grossman. I am as big of a backer as Rex as their is, but it is what it is. He is what he is... a guy with just over one full season's worth of starts. He shouldn't be able to come in and play a perfect game. He may have to in order to win, but it would be unfair to expect it out of him at this point. I think he has a good arm. I think scouts agree. Poise takes time. Look at what Peyton Manning did his first year. Give the man some time. OK, back to the Colts offense. What makes this offense so tough to stop is their offensive line. What has given then trouble in the past? Pittsburgh's blitz schemes and New England's cover schemes. The Bears this year have mainly only rushed their front 4. Indy should be able to handle that. They just don't let you touch Peyton. Tarik Glenn and Jeff Saturday anchor this line that should be regarded as highly as the Bears defense.
Taking the entire 2006 season in to consideration, the current rosters - no Mike Brown (starting pro-bowl safety), Tommie Harris (starting pro-bowl DT), Brandon Stokley (key 3rd WR to stretch the field and take advantage of slower nicklebacks/ linebackers), Corey Simon (starting DT) - and the level of their competition (AFC's dominance over the NFC deserves its own article), I make these predictions for the game:
-Dwight Freeney will force a fumble.
-Another Colt will also force a fumble.
-Rex Grossman will throw an interception. (I know, HUGE limb here.)
-The Colts will punt the ball out of bounds at least once. (No, you can't take what the Patriots did in the AFC Championship game, then say since the Bears are X-much better with their special teams and conclude they will gain Y more yards on punts and kickoffs. If the Colts do not make adjustments, however, a similar fate could be in store in terms of yardage lost.)
-Cedric Benson will carry the ball more than 10 times, but not more than 20.
-Joseph Addai, Ben Utecht and Dallas Clark will account for at least 2 TDs.
-If the Colts get to the goalline and Klecko flairs to the flats, the TE on the opposite side will be thrown to. Oh, and that play will start with play-action. Do I need to be more specific???
-The Bears throw at least 3 screens to the RB/FB. And two to the WRs. Maybe this is another gimmie, I don't know how often they try to do these things. I just think a few of these would be successful against the pressure the Colts defense will bring.
Final Score
Colts 31-17
posted by strougal | 12:40 AM
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