Tuesday April 3rd

No time to waste, we need to jump right in. Many observations from yesterday's true MLB opening day (with the help of the MLB Extra Innings Package)...

Cleveland 12 White Sox 5

My White Sox got crushed. OK, actually Jose Contreras got crushed. His fork-ball, his bread and butter pitch, was barely a factor. Hitters were waiting for the only pitch he could throw for a strike consistently - a fastball. His line: 1IP, 7 H, 1 BB. 7 ER (8 total). The Indians hit for the cycle against him. At least they played competitively the rest of the game. With Jose it is simple... he needs command of his forkball. 33 more tries Jose...

Seattle 4 Oakland 0

King Felix was impressive. It took only a few pitches to see the swagger he displays on the mound. It only took those same few pitches to also see why he can be titled with such a commanding label as "King". Yes, for all the baseball watching I do... this was really the first time I had seen Felix Hernandez pitch. What have I been watching? One of my favorite pitches is the two seam fastball that comes back over the plate to freeze a hitter. Felix had his man down 0-2 and just aced him. Best stuff seen in 2007 so far (yeah, I'm soooo far out on that limb). Other things I noted from the game: Safeco really is a pitchers park (duh)... very deep to center... what if you stack your team with guys who not only hit HRs, but hit LONG HRs. Sexson surely fits this mold and you can see how he has no problem crushing a ball to center over the fence. For other hitters, that may have been a flyout to CF. Guillen and Beltre in my mind are other LONG HR type of players... I'm just thinking that Seattle has got something going there with meshing a team and its ballpark. I think we'll need to revisit.

Minnesota 7 Baltimore 4

This was THE game to watch for one simple reason. Johan Santana. The game's best pitcher not named King Felix (ok, only for a day). While it really wasn't Johan's night (a meager 6 K's in 6 IP is sub par for HIS standards). We did get to see another elite player shine on opening day. Justin Morneau, the 2006 AL MVP, seemed to have no problems with fellow lefty Erik Bedard.

On the broadcast, the Twins announcers brought on ex-Twin Kent Hrbek. As if on cue, Morneau - who was up to bat at the time - served a HR to left... kind of like I remember Hrbek doing in the mid 80's. Didn't Hrbek take it to LF on more than a few occasions??? Any Twins/Hrbek fans agree here or am I just making that up???

I was very interested in watching Bedard. Many in the fantasy world like Bedard because of his high strikeout rates - which are very good. He posted a career best .258 AVG against last year which ranked 30th in MLB. Technically, the worst #1. :) He is trending towards having a better 2007, but sure didn't show it on Monday. His fastball sat at 91 MPH for many in the Twins order, but he dialed it up to 94-95 for Mauer and Morneau (96 vs Mauer in the 5th). He was mixing up his pitches, but the Twins were on everything. Bedard does show good command and was working the fastball to both sides of the plate. Maybe his problem is being around the strike zone TOO much? That or the Twins were just ready to hit on Opening Day... After Morneau hit his opposite field HR (to be referred to as going OPPO in the future) in the 2nd, Torri Hunter drove the very next first pitch for a HR to right - also going OPPO. Did the Twins have a plan against the strike magnet or were these good hitting instincts from some good hitters? Probably a little bit of both...

Other notables from the game...

Aubry Huff looked good turning on a Santana fastball... Jeff Cirillo is a contact hitter who wants to hit a line drive. You just walked a guy to load the bases and now you face "the pest". Every team has one. You know, a non-power hitter who can just kill you with the subjective big hit. OK, the Twins have a bunch of them. So, then you give Cirillo a fastball right there... on a tee slightly outside (saying, "please serve me to my right fielder") He goes with it to RF and drives in a run. The pest wins! That hit also prompted the first collision at home plate this year - Morneau into Paul Bako. Bako took a big shot, but appeared to only be left with a scrape. He did hold on to the ball. Make that 1-0 in favor of the catchers... First web gem goes to Rondell White on his dive down the line in left. Best catch of the night from the games I watched... Johan vs Tejada - 6th inning, Twins up 6-3. Johan throws 3 straight fastballs around the strike zone low and Tejada takes the fourth for a HR to center. One of those, 'we're up, no walks, I need to keep the pitch count low, come and get it' type pitching sequences to me. A lot of times that works... but Tejada can rake. But, do you really want to start walking guys? Bottom line is that was the Orioles last run and Johan gets his win (83 pitches/ 6 IP for those that want to know). Oh, and I like Bert Blyleven... yeah, yeah he had an incident recently, but when you start watching out of market games, you start taking notice of all the announcers as well. Nothing more on Blyleven for now... we'll get back to announcers at another time.

Other quick observations...
John Lackey was PISSED. Seething... spit flying... curses. He wanted to set the tone and a couple of mistakes behind him took away about an inning he could have pitched later. You love to see that fire, but I took it as putting the blame on his teammates. Now, I missed some of that inning, so I don't know where all his angst was being directed... regardless, an effective Lackey will take the Angels far this year. The first Stephen Drew sighting for me was on an error at SS... Looking forward to watching a lot of young talent from teams like Arizona and Colorado. Jose Valverde has got some heat and was effectively wild. Far from dominating, though, and looks like he can be hittable at times. It's probably going to be all or nothing out of him - but you can say that about any closer...

Super Bowl 41
Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts
February 4, 2007

What will the headline read on Monday the 5th? Will the Chicago Bears have enough offense to be able to outscore the Indianapolis Colts? Will the Indy offense be able to play its game versus the Chicago defense? Let's take a look at the matchups.

Both teams want to win the time of possession battle. Duh. Of course, the game will dictate whether that is necessary or not. The 2004 and 2005 Colt offenses could rip right through opposing defenses quicker than Dwight Freeney off the line. Or Bernard Berrian on a post. (Remember that Antoine Bethea - Indy's starting free safety). But in 2006, a more ball control oriented offensive attack has been at the root of the Colts' success. The Bears will want to pound the football to keep their offense on the field. Both teams employ a cover-2 defense which will limit the bombs to Berrian, Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. But, because of the more explosive Indy offense, it is a higher priority for the Bears to win the time of possession battle. If the Colts can possess the ball for 38+ minutes (I've never picked such an arbitrary number in my life), there is a good chance they'll come out ahead. The Bears could have that same number and it wouldn't necessarily translate the same way.

OK, now you have in your head that this is going to be a pro-Colts piece. Not so fast. The Bears aren't 15-3 for nothing. If you ask me who the better team is at running off tackle, I will tell you the Bears are. How about the counter? Give me Thomas Jones running that play behind that line, please. But, let's not forget about the Colts running backs. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes have been able to run effectively the entire year. And yes, Cedric Benson has played well of late. Both running games have been effective this year, but the Bears have been more consistent and have shown they can run right at you. Specifically for this game, the Colts defense should be able to handle the Bears running attack. Unless the Bears can consistently gain some yardage between the tackles, the Colts, and their bend but don't break defensive philosophy, will be happy with the yardage they give up.

Well, what kind of game do the Bears have to play to be able to come back to Chicago with a Super Bowl trophy? Can they win in a shootout? Well, sure... if it is a shootout, then it is anyone's game. But, which team is more likely to be ABLE to score a lot of points? OK, Bear fans, let's say we're talking JUST from our offense, now. The Colt offense is the MOST DOMINANT unit of the two organizations. If they play their game, they will win. The Bears must force turnovers to win. They do that. They strip, they intercept, they make big hits. A few plays like this certainly could change the course of the game in the Bears favor. Turnovers aren't lucky. Well, some are... but we're talking overall. The Bears force turnovers. The Colts don't turn the ball over. The deciding factor may be the fact that the Bears DO turn the ball over, although most of that comes from the hand of Rex Grossman. I am as big of a backer as Rex as their is, but it is what it is. He is what he is... a guy with just over one full season's worth of starts. He shouldn't be able to come in and play a perfect game. He may have to in order to win, but it would be unfair to expect it out of him at this point. I think he has a good arm. I think scouts agree. Poise takes time. Look at what Peyton Manning did his first year. Give the man some time. OK, back to the Colts offense. What makes this offense so tough to stop is their offensive line. What has given then trouble in the past? Pittsburgh's blitz schemes and New England's cover schemes. The Bears this year have mainly only rushed their front 4. Indy should be able to handle that. They just don't let you touch Peyton. Tarik Glenn and Jeff Saturday anchor this line that should be regarded as highly as the Bears defense.

Taking the entire 2006 season in to consideration, the current rosters - no Mike Brown (starting pro-bowl safety), Tommie Harris (starting pro-bowl DT), Brandon Stokley (key 3rd WR to stretch the field and take advantage of slower nicklebacks/ linebackers), Corey Simon (starting DT) - and the level of their competition (AFC's dominance over the NFC deserves its own article), I make these predictions for the game:

-Dwight Freeney will force a fumble.
-Another Colt will also force a fumble.
-Rex Grossman will throw an interception. (I know, HUGE limb here.)
-The Colts will punt the ball out of bounds at least once. (No, you can't take what the Patriots did in the AFC Championship game, then say since the Bears are X-much better with their special teams and conclude they will gain Y more yards on punts and kickoffs. If the Colts do not make adjustments, however, a similar fate could be in store in terms of yardage lost.)
-Cedric Benson will carry the ball more than 10 times, but not more than 20.
-Joseph Addai, Ben Utecht and Dallas Clark will account for at least 2 TDs.
-If the Colts get to the goalline and Klecko flairs to the flats, the TE on the opposite side will be thrown to. Oh, and that play will start with play-action. Do I need to be more specific???
-The Bears throw at least 3 screens to the RB/FB. And two to the WRs. Maybe this is another gimmie, I don't know how often they try to do these things. I just think a few of these would be successful against the pressure the Colts defense will bring.

Final Score
Colts 31-17